Integrative analysis and mapping of land cover trajectories in 2001-2012 using global digital data

The last decades saw an increasing application of geo-spatial land cover data bases for mapping land use patterns and identifying land cover changes [1, 3]. Our inventory and analysis of 2001-2012 land cover transformation was based on the open-access digital data provided by the Global Land Cover Facility [2, 4]. Categories of the Earth’s belt-and-zonal landscape structure as shown on the global map of geographical belts and zonal types of landscapes [5] were used as operational territorial units. This allowed obtaining geo-referred data on the transformation of land cover and identifying principal LULC trajectories within the natural zones of the Earth.
The inventory revealed 246 types of transitions of the IGBP land cover classes, including 229 types of changes, i.e. transformation of one land cover category to another during the period under study. The spatial pattern of identified changes shows that they are most typical for taiga and steppe zones of Eurasia and North America, savannas and woodlands of Africa and South America, and the Arctic tundras of North America and Eurasia. Natural zones with the complex structure of land cover, particularly woodlands, shrublands and savannas of the tropical belt and Mediterranean woodlands and shrublands, have the greatest variety of transition types (17) and types of changes (10 and 8 respectively).
Depending on the zonal features and the nature of transition between land cover classes 13 processes of transformation were identified. The impact of different processes on the structure of land cover changes in different zones was evaluated, thus revealing the principal trajectories of land cover transformation for each natural zone during 2001-2012. Temperate and tropical deserts are mostly characterized by the process of bare lands re-growth. By contrast, the subtropical semi-deserts mainly experience the reduction of vegetation coverage, i.e. the desertification process. Expansion of croplands is characteristic of forest-steppe and steppe zones. Both the increase in forest areas and the degradation of forests are the leading processes in the zone of moist tropical forests. The taiga zone and the zones of mixed and broad-leaved forests are principally marked by the processes of forest expansion and re-growth of former croplands.
Methodologically we suggest a research procedure for combining traditional maps [5, 6] and digital data (in this case the land cover data) to study landscape change processes. The results allow estimating the nature and degree of land cover transformation within the natural zones and revealing the main land use trends influencing the structure and dynamics of present-day landscapes of the world. The prospects of the research lie in the sphere of modeling the impact of