Using stakeholder ‘visions’ for woodland expansion as alternative trajectories for biodiversity and ecosystem service modelling

At 18%, woodland cover in Scotland is low both historically, and in comparison to other countries in Europe (1). Globally, forest restoration is accepted as an important mechanism to deliver biodiversity and climate change targets. In Scotland, this is framed as a government aspiration for woodland expansion, to deliver a wide range of benefits (2). However, there are diverse values held with regards to the Scottish landscape and the amount and types of woodland wanted (3). This PhD research is combining stakeholder engagement and modelling techniques to explore the effect of different ‘visions’, or ‘plausible and coherent descriptions of positive futures’ for woodland expansion on biodiversity and ecosystem services into the future. As normative scenarios (4), visions have a role in both searching for common ground between diverse stakeholder groups, and in thinking openly and creatively about the types of woodland that can be encouraged, and how the Scottish government aspiration can be met. A document analysis of 54 existing policies and plans from various stakeholders involved in forestry, conservation and land use has revealed that there are at least five distinct visions for how woodland expansion and forestry might develop in Scotland over the next century. These are: Green Gold (a focus on productive, sustainable plantations), Woodland Culture (small scale diversity in woodland type and tenure, woods for people), Best from the Land (diverse mix of land uses, the right tree in the right place), Native Networks (reconnecting native woodlands), and Wild Woodlands (larger areas given over to natural processes, including regenerating woodland). These visions formed the focal point for a national level stakeholder workshop, where input was received on how the visions might look and work into the 21st century. The visions will be used as alternative future trajectories in order to explore their potential implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Modelling techniques, integrating ecosystem service models with an agent-based model simulating the effect of individual stakeholder behaviour and governance mechanisms, will be applied at the national scale, as well as in two contrasting case study landscapes: the Coigach-Assynt Living Landscape in the NW Highlands, and the Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park, west of Glasgow.