Assessment of site-specific agro-ecological and location drivers of farmland abandonment in mosaic-type landscape: case study of Vidzeme, Latvia

Over the last decades, natural afforestation caused by farmland abandonment has considerably decreased the area of farmlands, leading to landscape polarization and homogenization. In Latvia, this process particularly evidently takes place in mosaic-type upland landscapes, which due to their complex moraine topography has a large variety of soils and mixed land cover/uses. The in-depth study of the agro-ecological and geographic factors in the western part of Vidzeme Uplands was carried out aimed at determining the site-specific driving forces of farmland abandonment at landstcape scale. A multilevel data mining approach with statistical analysis was elaborated to model further landscape change in the case study area. Results show that the strongest determinants of farmland abandonment are land quality, proximity to forest edge and distance from farm and that these parameters can be used to determine probability of occurrence of farmland abandonment. Land quality, a composite indicator, is a robust factor associated with farmland abandonment, in contrast to specific factors like soil texture. We will discuss the applicability of the developed model for risk assessment of farmland abandonment in mosaic-type landscape as an informative and decision-making tool for local agricultural policies planning.