Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez, WSL, Forest Sciences Research Centre of Catalonia (CTFC), alejandra.moran@ctfc.es
María Triviño, University of Jyväskylä, maria.trivino@jyu.fi
Robert Dunford, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, robert.dunford@ouce.ox.ac.uk
Summary
Under the threat that global change poses to the integrity of European ecosystems, the new research frontier is to forecast how landscapes will evolve under future socio-economic scenarios and to assess the potential consequences of these changes for ecosystem service provision, biodiversity and human well-being. In this symposium, we invite communications about studies focused on scenario-based landscape dynamics and biodiversity or ecosystem services evaluation. We will learn about the latest modelling and mapping techniques for quantifying the provision of services under future scenarios and about the challenges faced by the scientific community when trying to integrate complex modelling and forecasting approaches.
Description
Since the publication of the Millennium Ecosystem Service Assessment Reports in 2005 and the establishment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) in 2012, the scientific community has concentrated efforts on understanding the complexity of ecological patterns and processes and their interaction with human societies. This scientific interest has led to the development of a multiplicity of methods - from GIS land cover mapping to complex integrated modelling - to quantify the capacity of the natural systems to contribute to human well-being in various ways. Most studies have focused on assessing the provision/demand of ecosystem services and on evaluating trade-offs and synergies between them at a single point in time; however, the study of trends in ecosystem services under alternative future trajectories remains scarcely investigated. In the face of global change and the threat it may pose to the integrity of ecosystems, the new research frontier is the forecasting of how landscapes, and the ecosystems & species within them, will evolve under future scenarios of change. This includes the integration of landscape dynamics in the evaluation of ecosystem services, and consideration of the potential consequences of these changes for biodiversity conservation, ecosystem service provision and human well-being.
In this symposium, we want to bring together a diverse array of people across Europe working on scenario-based landscape dynamics and biodiversity or ecosystem services evaluation. The symposium aims to provide a broad overview of the state-of-the-art modelling (both process-based and correlative approaches) and mapping techniques for ecosystem services and biodiversity evaluation under future scenarios of change, and to identify the most important steps needed to continue advancing this field of research. The evaluation of the future state and condition of ecosystem services and biodiversity relies on scenario building. Therefore, the symposium also welcomes contributions about scenario generation within the context of ecosystem service and biodiversity assessment. We would like to receive contributions representative from a range of geographical and systems settings, including both the wildest and the intensively-managed European landscapes.
What can participants expect to learn?
Participants will learn about the latest modelling and mapping techniques for quantifying the provision of future ecosystem services in dynamic landscapes. We will also learn about the use of future scenarios (stakeholders/participatory approaches, global circulation models, etc.) to forecast future ecosystems condition/processes. Furthermore, participants will find out more about the challenges faced by the scientific community when trying to integrate complex modelling and forecasting approaches within the context of ecosystem services or biodiversity evaluation.
Impact
We will use social-media (e.g. live-tweeting #IALE2017 @ialeEurope) as well as our professional networks (e.g. the Ecosystem Services Partnership) to advertise the outcomes of session (who are the participants and what are the main results and take home messages from each oral/poster communication). We will also write a summary of the session for the IALE bulleting and to post in our professional blogs (e.g. https://alemoranordonez.wordpress.com/). Moreover, we will invite the speakers to write a collaborative article about the innovative methods to map and predict the future provision of ecosystem services (targeting journals like Landscape Ecology or Ecosystem Services).